There is a great article at the Ludwig von Mises Institute website today by Benjamin C. Richards. Richards is an experimental physicist who contends that economics is a not an empirical science that can be proved through the scientific process of hypothesis, experimentation and observation. Instead, it is a logical science, where theories are constructed using logic upon a foundation of underlying assumptions and premises.
He compares the science of economics to that of history, ethics and even mathematics, where the conclusions cannot be tested, but must be based on sound premises and logical arguments (think back to your geometry proofs). This is an excellent point, and one that should be recognized by students of epistemology, the study of how we know what we know. Subjects that deal with concepts instead of physical properties by necessity must be based in logical science.
My own discipline of political science is much the same way. In fact a professor of mine, Dr. Cathie Jo Martin, made this point during a class on comparative public policy. Under a true scientific test, you would hold all variables constant except for the one being tested. So, if you were trying to determine the effects of constitutional republic versus a dictatorship, you would have to create two nations of equal population, resources, cultures and histories, instruct all citizens to utilize the same emotional and logical decision-making processes as their counterparts, and then assign one nation to live in freedom and another to live under tyranny. Aside from the human rights issues involved, no one has the power or the intelligence to be able to control this type of experiment.
However, instead of realizing that the discipline of political science must be built upon logical argumentation, most political scientists today try to retain the mantle of empirical science. As a result, political scientists observe events and then attempt to "control" for other variables. The problem is that the infinite number of variables involved makes this job impossible, resulting in exponentially growing volumes of conflicting study results.
Richards' argument is well taken, especially as he applies it to Keynesian economists. Much like today's political scientists, Keynesian economists attempt to prove economic arguments using empirical means. As a result, Richards argues, they have utterly failed at predicting the major economic events of the last century. Austrian economists, who are based in logical science, have been able to accurately predict the great depression, housing market bubble, and other events. It is a brutal blow to the usefulness of Keynesian economics, and one that should relegate this failed theory to the ash heap of history.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Connecticut Legislature Finds Cure for Writer's Block
Last night, as part of an effort to see what Hamden's State Senators and Representatives were up to, I figured I would log onto the Connecticut General Assembly's website and look through the bills discussed in last week's public hearings, committee meetings and floor debates. After reading through and assessing about 30 bills that had been discussed just on Monday, I gave up. No one person can possibly read every single piece of legislation being produced by this legislature. A quick search this morning on the Assembly's website produced over 3,300 unique bill texts. Clearly nobody at the State Capitol is suffering from writer's block.
An open system that is too large to monitor and too complex to understand is not open. How is the average citizen supposed to know what bills are before the legislature or when their public hearings are to be held? The point is that the average citizen is not supposed to know, which is why many don't. The time and effort necessary to keep up with just 1 elected official is more than most people are willing to invest. As a result, people miss legislation like this:
A proposal to increase the gas tax to pay for rail improvements
A proposal to add fees to oil and gas delivery in order to pay for a Fuel Oil Conservation Fund
A proposal to raise the state income and estate taxes to cover budget shortfalls
A proposal to allow towns to create a 1% sales taxes
A proposal to allow towns to tax alcohol
etc...
Then, at election time, we hear politicians and pundits quoting bill numbers and resolution votes. Who is to say what is true and what is distortion? Only those who have been following along the whole time, which includes interest groups and the politicians themselves.
This gets to a larger question: Why do we need to do the job of these elected officials for them? This is a question I ask every municipal budget season when mayors and town councilors can't seem to find areas in their budgets to cut. Every budget is "bare bones." But, somehow, if citizens and local interest groups do the work for them, areas of pork can be found to cut. The whole point of a representative republic is that we send someone who represents our values and that we trust to review legislation and vote appropriately on our behalf. Perhaps during the next election cycle we will be able to vote in people who meet those criteria.
What can we do? A couple things:
An open system that is too large to monitor and too complex to understand is not open. How is the average citizen supposed to know what bills are before the legislature or when their public hearings are to be held? The point is that the average citizen is not supposed to know, which is why many don't. The time and effort necessary to keep up with just 1 elected official is more than most people are willing to invest. As a result, people miss legislation like this:
A proposal to increase the gas tax to pay for rail improvements
A proposal to add fees to oil and gas delivery in order to pay for a Fuel Oil Conservation Fund
A proposal to raise the state income and estate taxes to cover budget shortfalls
A proposal to allow towns to create a 1% sales taxes
A proposal to allow towns to tax alcohol
etc...
Then, at election time, we hear politicians and pundits quoting bill numbers and resolution votes. Who is to say what is true and what is distortion? Only those who have been following along the whole time, which includes interest groups and the politicians themselves.
This gets to a larger question: Why do we need to do the job of these elected officials for them? This is a question I ask every municipal budget season when mayors and town councilors can't seem to find areas in their budgets to cut. Every budget is "bare bones." But, somehow, if citizens and local interest groups do the work for them, areas of pork can be found to cut. The whole point of a representative republic is that we send someone who represents our values and that we trust to review legislation and vote appropriately on our behalf. Perhaps during the next election cycle we will be able to vote in people who meet those criteria.
What can we do? A couple things:
- Elect politicians with a libertarian philosophy and track record.
- Encourage our politicians to pass a "Read the Bills Act", which would ensure that the text of every single bill is read in full on the floor of both houses before members vote on it. This will of course encourage bills to be much shorter and simpler.
- You don't have to check everything (like I tried to do), but at least do a search to see what bills your representative and senator has sponsored this session. If you do find something you support or oppose, call their office and let them know.
- Check out the link to the weekly CT-N Capitol Report at the bottom of this page when you get the chance.
- Lastly, keep reading the Capitalist League for updates on events going on around the state.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
2008 Republican Primary Final Delegate Estimate - 2008-01-23
As the primary season unfolds this year, I was interested to find out what the Final Republican Delegate Count would be if the 2008 Republican Primary were tomorrow. Below are the results of my research. These figures include the results of the most recent Primaries (South Carolina and Nevada) and the latest polling data. I have also added more state-by-state polling data, as well as a new methodology for considering it in the final delegate count. Additionally, I have recently done further research into the process of delegate selection for those states I was unsure about.
John McCain - 1,135
Michael Huckabee - 438
Rudolph Giuliani - 246
Mitt Romney - 210
Ron Paul - 31
Unpledged - 320
Total Delegates: 2380
Needed to Win: 1191
Winner: No Delegate Majority Achieved
Disclaimer:
This map is simply an average of national polling, created using the methodology described below. I am not a professional pollster, and the above map is for illustrative purposes only. As the national polls continue to vary, given the unpredictable nature of the primary race at this point, this map will change. I will continue to update these numbers as poll numbers change and as the actual primary votes and caucus results are gathered, and Republican delegates selected.
Click Here to View the Most Recent Map
I should also add that this does map does not represent my endorsement of any one candidate or their position. It is simply a compilation of polling data and not reflective of my opinions in any way, since the end result is created by strict calculation.
Methodology:
The process of delegate selection for each state was researched, as well as the number of delegates.
Where actual cauci and primaries had been conducted, the actual delegate count was used. These states included: Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina
Where cauci and primaries had not been conducted, the most recent statewide polling data was used to determine the estimated delegate count. Statewide polling data from www.realclearpolitics.com and www.usaelectionpolls.com was used in this study. These states included: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. If the poll was conducted less than 31 days ago, it was used. If it was conducted more than 31 days ago, then the state's poll figures were averaged with the national poll figures. The weight of the state poll figures in this average was decreased according to the date they were conducted, with older polls having the least weight. This was done the preserve some regional data in the delegate estimates, while also taking the date of the poll and national trends into consideration.
Where statewide polling data was not available, the national average according to www.realclearpolitics.com was used.
For all polling data, support for candidates no longer in the race (Hunter, Tancredo, Thompson) were added to the Undecided category).
In the Real Clear Politics Average, Senator John McCain had an 8.4% lead over the other candidates. Given the number of winner-take-all states, and the age of many state-by-state polls (influences the state-by-state methodology), he takes a large amount of Republican Delegates. However, recent state polls haven given enough delegates to Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani to prevent McCain from forming a majority.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
2008 Republican Primary Final Delegate Estimate - 2008-01-16
As the primary season unfolds this year, I was interested to find out what the Final Republican Delegate Count would be if the 2008 Republican Primary were tomorrow. Below are the results of my research. These figures include the results of the New Hampshire and Michigan Primaries and the latest polling data. I have also added more state-by-state polling data, as well as a new methodology for considering it in the final delegate count.
John McCain - 1,637
Michael Huckabee - 246
Rudolph Giuliani - 177
Mitt Romney - 95
Fred Thompson - 23
Ron Paul - 9
Duncan Hunter - 1
Unpledged - 192
Total Delegates: 2380
Needed to Win: 1191
Winner: John McCain
Disclaimer:
This map is simply an average of national polling, created using the methodology described below. I am not a professional pollster, and the above map is for illustrative purposes only. As the national polls continue to vary, given the unpredictable nature of the primary race at this point, this map will change. I will continue to update these numbers as poll numbers change and as the actual primary votes and caucus results are gathered, and Republican delegates selected.
Click Here to View the Most Recent Map
Methodology:
The process of delegate selection for each state was researched, as well as the number of delegates. Where the process of delegate selection was unknown, a "winner-take-all" method was used, since this is the most common practice within the Republican Party delegate selection process. The states which were assumed to use the "winner-take-all" method included: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Vermont and Washington.
Where actual cauci and primaries had been conducted, the actual delegate count was used. These states included: Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire and Michigan.
Where cauci and primaries had not been conducted, the most recent statewide polling data was used to determine the estimated delegate count. Statewide polling data from www.realclearpolitics.com and www.usaelectionpolls.com was used in this study. These states included: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. If the poll was conducted less than 31 days ago, it was used. If it was conducted more than 31 days ago, then the states poll figures were averaged with the national poll figures. The weight of the state poll figures in this average was decreased according to the date they were conducted, with older polls having the least weight. This was done the preserve some regional data in the delegate estimates, while also taking the date of the poll and national trends into consideration.
Where statewide polling data was not available, the national average according to www.realclearpolitics.com was used. In the Real Clear Politics Average, Senator John McCain had a 9.5% lead over the other candidates. Given the number of winner-take-all states, and the age of many state-by-state polls (influences the state-by-state methodology), he takes the majority of Republican Delegates.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
2008 Republican Primary Final Delegate Estimate - 2008-01-09
As the primary season begins to unfold this year, I was interested to find out what the Final Republican Delegate Count would be if the 2008 Republican Primary were tomorrow. Below are the results of my research. These figures include the results of the New Hampshire Primary and the latest polling data.
Michael Huckabee - 1,624
Rudolph Giuliani - 477
Mitt Romney - 60
John McCain - 36
Fred Thompson - 21
Ron Paul - 8
Duncan Hunter - 1
Unpledged - 153
Total Delegates: 2380
Needed to Win: 1191
Winner: Michael Huckabee
Disclaimer:
This map is simply an average of national polling, created using the methodology described below. I am not a professional pollster, and the above map is for illustrative purposes only. As the national polls continue to vary, given the unpredictable nature of the primary race at this point, this map will change. I will continue to update these numbers as poll numbers change and as the actual primary votes and caucus results are gathered, and Republican delegates selected.
Click Here to View the Most Recent Map
Methodology:
The process of delegate selection for each state was researched, as well as the number of delegates. Where the process of delegate selection was unknown, a "winner-take-all" method was used, since this is the most common practice within the Republican Party delegate selection process. The states which were assumed to use the "winner-take-all" method included: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Vermont and Washington.
Where actual cauci and primaries had been conducted, the actual delegate count was used. These states included: Iowa, Wyoming and New Hampshire
Where cauci and primaries had not been conducted, the most recent statewide polling data was used to determine the estimated delegate count. Statewide polling data from www.realclearpolitics.com was used in this study. These states included: California, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and South Carolina.
Where statewide polling data was not available, the national average according to www.realclearpolitics.com was used. In the Real Clear Politics Average, Governor Michael Huckabee had a 1.3% lead over the other candidates. Given the number of winner-take-all states, he takes the majority of Republican Delegates.
Monday, January 7, 2008
2008 Republican Primary Final Delegate Estimate - 2008-01-07
As the primary season begins to unfold this year, I was interested to find out what the Final Republican Delegate Count would be if the 2008 Republican Primary were tomorrow. Here are the results of my research:
John McCain - 1,591
Rudolph Giuliani - 481
Michael Huckabee - 65
Mitt Romney - 56
Fred Thompson - 20
Ron Paul - 8
Duncan Hunter - 1
Unpledged - 158
Total Delegates: 2380
Needed to Win: 1191
Winner: John McCain
Disclaimer:
This map is simply an average of national polling, created using the methodology described below. I am not a professional pollster, and the above map is for illustrative purposes only. As the national polls continue to vary, given the unpredictable nature of the primary race at this point, this map will change. I will continue to update these numbers as poll numbers change and as the actual primary votes and caucus results are gathered, and Republican delegates selected.
Click Here to View the Most Recent Map
Methodology:
The process of delegate selection for each state was researched, as well as the number of delegates. Where the process of delegate selection was unknown, a "winner-take-all" method was used, since this is the most common practice within the Republican Party delegate selection process. The states which were assumed to use the "winner-take-all" method included: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Vermont and Washington.
Where actual cauci and primaries had been conducted, the actual delegate count was used. These states included: Iowa and Wyoming
Where cauci and primaries had not been conducted, the most recent statewide polling data was used to determine the estimated delegate count. Statewide polling data from www.realclearpolitics.com was used in this study. These states included: California, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and South Carolina.
Where statewide polling data was not available, the national average according to www.realclearpolitics.com was used. In the Real Clear Politics Average, Senator John McCain had a 1% lead over the other candidates. Given the number of winner-take-all states, he takes the majority of Republican Delegates.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Sad State of Municipal Politics
Yesterday the state was hit with its first major snow storm of the season. As usual, the Hartford Courant, WTNH Channel 8 News and others (oddly enough though, not the New Haven Register...) were on the beat to report on the conditions of the storm. The first sentence of the Courant article says it all: "A heavy snowfall blanketed most of the state Thursday, shutting down stretches of the state's major thoroughfares, grounding airplanes and causing hundreds of traffic accidents." I sincerely hope you did not have to drive around yesterday. And if you did, I hope that you were able to get home safely, with relatively little cursing or stress-related hair loss.
I had the good fortune to drive through New Haven during the aftermath of the storm. The Elm City did not even begin to plow it's roadways until after the storm ended. By 3pm, many streets were still icy, slushy, slippery and dangerous. The winter mess left on Dixwell Avenue, Whalley Avenue, and other major thoroughfares tied up traffic and made travel almost impossible. No doubt it led to several accidents as well. Where were the plows? Where was the salt? Where was the city when it was needed to perform it's municipal functions?
What yesterday's storm showed, with ice crystal clarity, was how woefully unprepared for winter Connecticut's municipalities are. One of the major functions we have entrusted to our municipalities is the maintenance of our roadways. Now, it appears they are not able to carry out even that correctly. Why? Where was the equipment, the preparedness and the money to keep our right-of-ways safe and clear?
It brought to mind another rumor I heard about New Haven. Apparently, the tallest ladder in the city is only 11 stories. Meanwhile, there are at least 5 high-rise buildings taller than that in the city. As the recent blaze this week showed, a fire can happen anywhere in the city, at any time. What if it had been the Connecticut Financial Center (27 floors) or the Knights of Columbus Building (23 stories)? Would the city have been prepared to deal with that type of fire emergency? And knowing that its equipment was inadequate, wouldn't it make the purchase of fire fighting equipment its number one priority? I mean, fire protection is one of the primary and most basic functions of municipal government.
Fire protection, police services, roadway maintenance... these are vital municipal functions that directly affect people lives. Neglect of these duties results in property damage, bodily injury, and in some cases death. So why does it seem that New Have is ignoring these vital functions? It's not for lack of funds. New Haven's proposed FY2007-2008 total budget is $717.6 million. Not to mention the fact that my property taxes are over 4.2%. In fact I just paid the tax bill on my car, and it was not cheap. Plus, city taxes are figured into my monthly rent. Where are all of our tax dollars going?
The city is spending $39.8 million (5.5%) on Police Services. Another $32.7 million (4.6%) on Fire Protection. Public Works gets a mere $18.1 million (2.5%). Where does the rest go? A variety of other social services, Debt Service $57.7 million (8.0%), and of course Education, at a whopping $348.6 million (48.6%). Then, I find this story by Elizabeth Benton from Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2007 in the New Haven Register.
The point is that our municipalities seems to be neglecting their most basic functions: Police, Fire, Roadway Maintenance... in favor of programs and initiatives designed more to get votes than to get results. These programs are creating a crushing tax burden on the Connecticut taxpayer, crowding out funding for vital municipal services and driving cities and towns into deeper and deeper debt. This isn't just irresponsible, it's dangerous. That extra $5 million the New Haven wants for education (a drop in the bucket) could be used to buy fire equipment, hire new police officers, pay for roadway maintenance, etc... Instead, the city of New Haven and other municipalities are trading the safety of residents' property and lives for political popularity. Our message to our leaders should be: Cut the pork and focus on priorities. It's amazing what a simple snow storm can reveal...
I had the good fortune to drive through New Haven during the aftermath of the storm. The Elm City did not even begin to plow it's roadways until after the storm ended. By 3pm, many streets were still icy, slushy, slippery and dangerous. The winter mess left on Dixwell Avenue, Whalley Avenue, and other major thoroughfares tied up traffic and made travel almost impossible. No doubt it led to several accidents as well. Where were the plows? Where was the salt? Where was the city when it was needed to perform it's municipal functions?
What yesterday's storm showed, with ice crystal clarity, was how woefully unprepared for winter Connecticut's municipalities are. One of the major functions we have entrusted to our municipalities is the maintenance of our roadways. Now, it appears they are not able to carry out even that correctly. Why? Where was the equipment, the preparedness and the money to keep our right-of-ways safe and clear?
It brought to mind another rumor I heard about New Haven. Apparently, the tallest ladder in the city is only 11 stories. Meanwhile, there are at least 5 high-rise buildings taller than that in the city. As the recent blaze this week showed, a fire can happen anywhere in the city, at any time. What if it had been the Connecticut Financial Center (27 floors) or the Knights of Columbus Building (23 stories)? Would the city have been prepared to deal with that type of fire emergency? And knowing that its equipment was inadequate, wouldn't it make the purchase of fire fighting equipment its number one priority? I mean, fire protection is one of the primary and most basic functions of municipal government.
Fire protection, police services, roadway maintenance... these are vital municipal functions that directly affect people lives. Neglect of these duties results in property damage, bodily injury, and in some cases death. So why does it seem that New Have is ignoring these vital functions? It's not for lack of funds. New Haven's proposed FY2007-2008 total budget is $717.6 million. Not to mention the fact that my property taxes are over 4.2%. In fact I just paid the tax bill on my car, and it was not cheap. Plus, city taxes are figured into my monthly rent. Where are all of our tax dollars going?
The city is spending $39.8 million (5.5%) on Police Services. Another $32.7 million (4.6%) on Fire Protection. Public Works gets a mere $18.1 million (2.5%). Where does the rest go? A variety of other social services, Debt Service $57.7 million (8.0%), and of course Education, at a whopping $348.6 million (48.6%). Then, I find this story by Elizabeth Benton from Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2007 in the New Haven Register.
"Officials laud citywide housing initiative: Over the last five years, $59.5 million has gone into building 321 housing units at 26 sites citywide, the last of which are currently under construction."And remember the Elm City Resident Card? The one which allows illegal aliens to access city services... The list could go on and on. And I'm sure that your local town's budget is not much different.
The point is that our municipalities seems to be neglecting their most basic functions: Police, Fire, Roadway Maintenance... in favor of programs and initiatives designed more to get votes than to get results. These programs are creating a crushing tax burden on the Connecticut taxpayer, crowding out funding for vital municipal services and driving cities and towns into deeper and deeper debt. This isn't just irresponsible, it's dangerous. That extra $5 million the New Haven wants for education (a drop in the bucket) could be used to buy fire equipment, hire new police officers, pay for roadway maintenance, etc... Instead, the city of New Haven and other municipalities are trading the safety of residents' property and lives for political popularity. Our message to our leaders should be: Cut the pork and focus on priorities. It's amazing what a simple snow storm can reveal...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
