Thursday Theory: Critical Realignment Theory and the 2008 Election

Critical Realignment Theory is a much debated theory in the field of political science regarding party politics. The basic theory states that there is a major shift in United States political party ideology, issues and coalitions about every 30 years.

V.O. Key first developed the notion of "critical elections," in his 1955 article, "A Theory of Critical Elections." Key proposed that certain presidential elections were more important than others, in that they had a larger impact on future elections than others. In addition, he noted that American electoral patterns remained stable for a period of time before a critical election took place.

Over the next 50 years, several other academics studied the idea of critical elections, notably E.E. Schattschneider, James L. Sundquist, Walter Dean Burnham and Paul Kleppner. Here, the idea of realignment was developed. Realignment is the manner in which a critical election "realigns" tradition party coalitions and creates a new era of party politics. The cycle of realignment usually takes 30-40 years, or roughly one generation. Basically, a critical election establishes a party system with a set of issues and ideas that politicians address. Since political parties will stick with what has worked in the past, their platforms remain relatively unchanged. As time goes on, new issues and ideas emerge that go unaddressed by political parties (ie. In today's system: Illegal Immigration). This creates a large pool of voters who are ignored and marginalized. Soon, this pool of candidates finds a candidate with new ideas and new ways of addressing old issues. This candidate is then elected in a critical election, that realigns the issues, ideology, and coalitions of political parties for another generation.

I have summarized the traditionally cited eras below:

1800 - Thomas Jefferson wins against John Adams
The Jefferson Era solidified the party system in the United States, and began a generation of Democratic-Republican control and the demise of the Federalist Party.

1826 - Andrew Jackson wins against John Quincy Adams
The Jackson Era continued the dominance of the Democratic-Republican party, and introduced the spoils system, which changed the nature of party influence on political offices and the voters. The Jackson Era is often cited as the period in American history when political parties had the most influence.

1860 - Abraham Lincoln
The Lincoln Era saw the emergence of the Republican Party, with a shift in voting coalitions to North vs. South, with the major issue of the day being slavery.

1896 - William McKinley wins against William Jennings Bryan
The McKinley election is sometimes disputed as a realigning election. However, the change in party politics is clearly evident as a result of the election. William McKinley and the Republicans were able to hold together and strengthen a coalition of businessmen, professionals, skilled workers and farmers. Williams Jennings Bryan however, failed to realign party coalition along class lines, ie. rich vs. poor. As a result, the Republicans began a 30 year era of dominance that lasted until FDR. In addition, the McKinley Era saw the rise of Progressivism in the Republican Party, which was a change from the Classical Liberalism that had previously dominated the party.

1932 - Franklin Delano Roosevelt wins against Herbert Hoover
The Roosevelt Era saw the creation of the Modern Liberal ideology, that government can solve social problems. In addition, the Democrat and Republican coalitions came to rest upon class lines, as Williams Jennings Bryan had attempted, with the Democrats representing the interests of the poor and the Republicans representing the interests of the rich.

Some would argue that the 1932 election was the last realigning election. One school of thought claims that the rise of the modern media supplanted the need for party politics and somehow ended the cycle of realignment. However, changed in media may poke holes in this theory. The rise of talk radio in the 1980s and the rise of the internet today have already had a profound effect on political campaigns and party politics. Other academics hold with a de-alignment theory, which believes that party politics had been declining since the Jackson Era and that the Roosevelt Era represents it's ultimate demise. Usually, these are liberal academics who do not want to give credit to modern Republicans or cannot see the accomplishments of presidents such as Reagan and Nixon. I would argue that there was a sixth realignment.

1968/1980 - Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan
These two presidents advanced the new conservative ideology that had been developed by people like Barry Goldwater and William F. Buckley. Richard Nixon was the first president to be elected who voiced conservative ideas during his 1968 campaign. The conservative movement was hurt by the Watergate Scandal, but later advanced and solidified by Ronald Reagan. If you think about it, modern Republicans still measure themselves against Ronald Reagan, calling themselves "Reagan Republicans." Moreover, the party coalitions shifted as well. After World War II and the construction of the interstate system, America saw the rise of the suburbs. As people moved out of the city, a new constituency was created. The elections of 1968-1980 created a Republican coalition based on rural voters, while the Democrat coalition became that of the city. We still see today that cities vote overwhelmingly Democrat, more rural areas vote Republican, and the suburbs stand as a battleground between the two.

An you can see, we are due for another realigning election soon. Some would argue that 2004 or 2006 was a realigning election. I would disagree. In both elections, traditional Republican and Democrat ideologies remained the same. Both parties retained their traditional coalitions. And, many issues continue to go unaddressed: immigration, social security reform, the nature of education funding, taxation, etc...

I believe that 2008 will be a realigning election primarily because there will be no incumbents running for president. As a result, both parties have the opportunity to reshape their message, address new issues, present new solutions to national problems, and reach out to voting blocks that were traditionally out of their grasp. For example, many Democrats have the opportunity to build and solidify a coalition of statists, who advocate massive government spending and power. Senator Barack Obama's "Third Way" may represent the beginnings of a new Democrat ideology as well, although it is doubtful at the present time. The Republicans also offer several changes from the past. Mayor Rudy Giuliani's stance on gay marriage and abortion may break off the Christian element of the party and exchange it for greater support from gays and women. Senator John McCain also represents a shift in Republican ideology to a more moderate form, while retaining strength on foreign policy issues. Fred Thompson's ideological conservatism may strengthen the existing Republican coalition, much in the same way the election of William McKinley did. Either way, there is a great diversity of opinions in the mix right now. Additionally, turn out should be high, given the issues at stake. Whether 2008 will be a realigning election is up for debate. But, as the time draws closer we will be better able to tell for sure.