As the primary season begins to unfold this year, I was interested to find out what the Final Republican Delegate Count would be if the 2008 Republican Primary were tomorrow. Here are the results of my research:
John McCain - 1,591
Rudolph Giuliani - 481
Michael Huckabee - 65
Mitt Romney - 56
Fred Thompson - 20
Ron Paul - 8
Duncan Hunter - 1
Unpledged - 158
Total Delegates: 2380
Needed to Win: 1191
Winner: John McCain
Disclaimer:
This map is simply an average of national polling, created using the methodology described below. I am not a professional pollster, and the above map is for illustrative purposes only. As the national polls continue to vary, given the unpredictable nature of the primary race at this point, this map will change. I will continue to update these numbers as poll numbers change and as the actual primary votes and caucus results are gathered, and Republican delegates selected.
Click Here to View the Most Recent Map
Methodology:
The process of delegate selection for each state was researched, as well as the number of delegates. Where the process of delegate selection was unknown, a "winner-take-all" method was used, since this is the most common practice within the Republican Party delegate selection process. The states which were assumed to use the "winner-take-all" method included: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Vermont and Washington.
Where actual cauci and primaries had been conducted, the actual delegate count was used. These states included: Iowa and Wyoming
Where cauci and primaries had not been conducted, the most recent statewide polling data was used to determine the estimated delegate count. Statewide polling data from www.realclearpolitics.com was used in this study. These states included: California, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and South Carolina.
Where statewide polling data was not available, the national average according to www.realclearpolitics.com was used. In the Real Clear Politics Average, Senator John McCain had a 1% lead over the other candidates. Given the number of winner-take-all states, he takes the majority of Republican Delegates.
6 comments:
Interesting project! Thanks for going to this effort. I do hope you prove correct!
Everyone is talking about Iowa and New Hampshire, but it is the delegates to the Republican National Convention that really determine the Republican Nominee. Given the horse race going on in the Republican Party, I just thought it would be an interesting project.
I was prepared to do this myself just to answer my own questions. Luckily I always google first. You just saved me a lot of time. It may be a rather far off though, due to the winner-take-all assumptions you had to make. Thanks
According to most recent polls, Romney takes Utah and Idaho by a landslide and Arizona belongs to Giuliani with McCain at a close 2nd. The numbers vary between differnt polls, but all conclude the same winners.
Being a Romney hopeful, I had to say something... especially since McCain would be the WORST (besides Huckabee) nominee for the RNC since he is NOT Republican at all. For all you McCain lovers, just look at his record. If you're a Republican and you vote for McCain, please switch parties. He is so on the line partial to Democrats! He wouldn't even be close in the race in Michigan if it weren't for the Democrats pulling out. They allow all parties to vote for whichever party. SO if you're a registered Democrat, you can still vote for a Republican. This totally messes with the system. According to Zogby polls, Mitt Romney has 30% of the Republican votes. McCain's votes are mostly from independents and Dems. It's pretty sad when you consider the fact the Democrats may actually have a say in who the Republican nominee is. I think all states should conform to the rule of voting within your party.
Funny, I consider myself Conservative in the sense that spending should most be limited to military and infrastructure. I'm a great admirer of McCain having voted for him in 2000. I believe he will land up the winner, particularly given the meager choices we have. Other than a few states I don't see Romney or Huckabee having a real shot.
Your conjecture is so wrong as to be laughable. Romney LEADS in delegates with 72 and has 3 Wins, Michigan, Wyoming and Nevada. He currently leads in Florida and is the only candidate with the funds and grass roots support to go all the way. McCain is too old and too angry!
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