As the primary season unfolds this year, I was interested to find out what the Final Republican Delegate Count would be if the 2008 Republican Primary were tomorrow. Below are the results of my research. These figures include the results of the New Hampshire and Michigan Primaries and the latest polling data. I have also added more state-by-state polling data, as well as a new methodology for considering it in the final delegate count.
John McCain - 1,637
Michael Huckabee - 246
Rudolph Giuliani - 177
Mitt Romney - 95
Fred Thompson - 23
Ron Paul - 9
Duncan Hunter - 1
Unpledged - 192
Total Delegates: 2380
Needed to Win: 1191
Winner: John McCain
Disclaimer:
This map is simply an average of national polling, created using the methodology described below. I am not a professional pollster, and the above map is for illustrative purposes only. As the national polls continue to vary, given the unpredictable nature of the primary race at this point, this map will change. I will continue to update these numbers as poll numbers change and as the actual primary votes and caucus results are gathered, and Republican delegates selected.
Click Here to View the Most Recent Map
Methodology:
The process of delegate selection for each state was researched, as well as the number of delegates. Where the process of delegate selection was unknown, a "winner-take-all" method was used, since this is the most common practice within the Republican Party delegate selection process. The states which were assumed to use the "winner-take-all" method included: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Vermont and Washington.
Where actual cauci and primaries had been conducted, the actual delegate count was used. These states included: Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire and Michigan.
Where cauci and primaries had not been conducted, the most recent statewide polling data was used to determine the estimated delegate count. Statewide polling data from www.realclearpolitics.com and www.usaelectionpolls.com was used in this study. These states included: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. If the poll was conducted less than 31 days ago, it was used. If it was conducted more than 31 days ago, then the states poll figures were averaged with the national poll figures. The weight of the state poll figures in this average was decreased according to the date they were conducted, with older polls having the least weight. This was done the preserve some regional data in the delegate estimates, while also taking the date of the poll and national trends into consideration.
Where statewide polling data was not available, the national average according to www.realclearpolitics.com was used. In the Real Clear Politics Average, Senator John McCain had a 9.5% lead over the other candidates. Given the number of winner-take-all states, and the age of many state-by-state polls (influences the state-by-state methodology), he takes the majority of Republican Delegates.
1 comments:
A few thoughts on Texas and California. Texas is only winner take all if someone gets 50% of the popular vote. That aint gonna happen unless Giuliani and Huckabee drop out. California is winner take all by congressional district. There is no way the same person can win southern Cali, S.F. area and the Sacramento areas. Those people, even the Republicans are just too different.
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