As the primary season begins to unfold this year, I was interested to find out what the Final Republican Delegate Count would be if the 2008 Republican Primary were tomorrow. Below are the results of my research. These figures include the results of the New Hampshire Primary and the latest polling data.
Michael Huckabee - 1,624
Rudolph Giuliani - 477
Mitt Romney - 60
John McCain - 36
Fred Thompson - 21
Ron Paul - 8
Duncan Hunter - 1
Unpledged - 153
Total Delegates: 2380
Needed to Win: 1191
Winner: Michael Huckabee
Disclaimer:
This map is simply an average of national polling, created using the methodology described below. I am not a professional pollster, and the above map is for illustrative purposes only. As the national polls continue to vary, given the unpredictable nature of the primary race at this point, this map will change. I will continue to update these numbers as poll numbers change and as the actual primary votes and caucus results are gathered, and Republican delegates selected.
Click Here to View the Most Recent Map
Methodology:
The process of delegate selection for each state was researched, as well as the number of delegates. Where the process of delegate selection was unknown, a "winner-take-all" method was used, since this is the most common practice within the Republican Party delegate selection process. The states which were assumed to use the "winner-take-all" method included: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Vermont and Washington.
Where actual cauci and primaries had been conducted, the actual delegate count was used. These states included: Iowa, Wyoming and New Hampshire
Where cauci and primaries had not been conducted, the most recent statewide polling data was used to determine the estimated delegate count. Statewide polling data from www.realclearpolitics.com was used in this study. These states included: California, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and South Carolina.
Where statewide polling data was not available, the national average according to www.realclearpolitics.com was used. In the Real Clear Politics Average, Governor Michael Huckabee had a 1.3% lead over the other candidates. Given the number of winner-take-all states, he takes the majority of Republican Delegates.
