As the primary season unfolds this year, I was interested to find out what the Final Republican Delegate Count would be if the 2008 Republican Primary were tomorrow. Below are the results of my research. These figures include the results of the most recent Primaries (South Carolina and Nevada) and the latest polling data. I have also added more state-by-state polling data, as well as a new methodology for considering it in the final delegate count. Additionally, I have recently done further research into the process of delegate selection for those states I was unsure about.
John McCain - 1,135
Michael Huckabee - 438
Rudolph Giuliani - 246
Mitt Romney - 210
Ron Paul - 31
Unpledged - 320
Total Delegates: 2380
Needed to Win: 1191
Winner: No Delegate Majority Achieved
Disclaimer:
This map is simply an average of national polling, created using the methodology described below. I am not a professional pollster, and the above map is for illustrative purposes only. As the national polls continue to vary, given the unpredictable nature of the primary race at this point, this map will change. I will continue to update these numbers as poll numbers change and as the actual primary votes and caucus results are gathered, and Republican delegates selected.
Click Here to View the Most Recent Map
I should also add that this does map does not represent my endorsement of any one candidate or their position. It is simply a compilation of polling data and not reflective of my opinions in any way, since the end result is created by strict calculation.
Methodology:
The process of delegate selection for each state was researched, as well as the number of delegates.
Where actual cauci and primaries had been conducted, the actual delegate count was used. These states included: Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina
Where cauci and primaries had not been conducted, the most recent statewide polling data was used to determine the estimated delegate count. Statewide polling data from www.realclearpolitics.com and www.usaelectionpolls.com was used in this study. These states included: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. If the poll was conducted less than 31 days ago, it was used. If it was conducted more than 31 days ago, then the state's poll figures were averaged with the national poll figures. The weight of the state poll figures in this average was decreased according to the date they were conducted, with older polls having the least weight. This was done the preserve some regional data in the delegate estimates, while also taking the date of the poll and national trends into consideration.
Where statewide polling data was not available, the national average according to www.realclearpolitics.com was used.
For all polling data, support for candidates no longer in the race (Hunter, Tancredo, Thompson) were added to the Undecided category).
In the Real Clear Politics Average, Senator John McCain had an 8.4% lead over the other candidates. Given the number of winner-take-all states, and the age of many state-by-state polls (influences the state-by-state methodology), he takes a large amount of Republican Delegates. However, recent state polls haven given enough delegates to Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani to prevent McCain from forming a majority.
